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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
6/26/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Gazprom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg66%
×Draw19%
Krylya Sovetov15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.16
Krylya Sovetov
0.90

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 140% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 106 away

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.53
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.76
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw
85%
Zenit Saint Petersburg or Krylya Sovetov
81%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
34%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
42%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
88%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
63%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
36%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
59%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
23%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
82%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 2.53 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.16

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
66%
level
19%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
15%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Krylya Sovetov

Zenit Saint Petersburg beat Krylya Sovetov 2-1 in Premier League on June 26, 2020.

The match was played at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg.