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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Khimki — Cup 2019

Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburgadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khimki
Khimki
7/25/2020CupCup · Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg67%
×Draw20%
Khimki13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.97
Khimki
0.71

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 177% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.39
Khimki
1.00

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.43
Khimki
1.54

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw
87%
Zenit Saint Petersburg or Khimki
80%
Draw or Khimki
33%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
41%
Khimki wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
86%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
58%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
31%
Khimki 1+ goals
51%
Khimki 2+ goals
16%
Khimki 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
84%
Khimki (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 2.39 + Khimki defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.97

Khimki attack 1.00 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
67%
level
20%
Khimki scores more
13%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Khimki

Zenit Saint Petersburg beat Khimki 1-0 in Cup on July 25, 2020.