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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Juventus — UEFA Champions League 2026

Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juventus
Juventus
10/20/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 3Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg40%
×Draw24%
Juventus35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.55
Juventus
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.67
Juventus
1.52

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.33
Juventus
1.44

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par
Juventus+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Juventus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw
65%
Zenit Saint Petersburg or Juventus
76%
Draw or Juventus
60%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
20%
Juventus wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
79%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
46%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
20%
Juventus 1+ goals
76%
Juventus 2+ goals
42%
Juventus 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
53%
Juventus (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.67 + Juventus defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.55

Juventus attack 1.52 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
40%
level
24%
Juventus scores more
35%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Zenit Saint Petersburg 0–1 Juventus

Juventus beat Zenit Saint Petersburg 1-0 in UEFA Champions League on October 20, 2021.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.