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Juventus vs Zenit Saint Petersburg — UEFA Champions League 2026

Juventus
Juventus
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
11/2/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 4Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Juventus66%
×Draw20%
Zenit Saint Petersburg14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
2.06
Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.81

Juventus creates 154% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.91
Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.67

allows per match

Juventus
0.96
Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.22

finishing

Juventus+0.00on par
Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
86%
Juventus or Zenit Saint Petersburg
80%
Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg
34%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
42%
Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
87%
Juventus 2+ goals
61%
Juventus 3+ goals
34%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
56%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
19%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
83%
Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.91 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.06

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 0.67 + Juventus defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Juventus scores more
66%
level
20%
Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
14%

Juventus at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus vs Zenit Saint Petersburg

Juventus beat Zenit Saint Petersburg 4-2 in UEFA Champions League on November 2, 2021.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.