Zenit Penza 0–2 Kompozit: Result & Stats

Zenit Penza

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kompozit

10/8/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion Pervomayskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zenit Penza32%

×Draw24%

Kompozit44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit PenzaExpected goals in this matchKompozit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.63

Zenit Penza

1.35

Kompozit

1.63

Kompozit creates 21% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 23 away

1.27

creates per match

1.83

1.43

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Zenit Penza

1.27

Kompozit

1.83

allows per match

Zenit Penza

1.43

Kompozit

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit Penza+0.00on par

Kompozit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Penza ↓

Kompozit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zenit Penza or draw

56%

Zenit Penza or Kompozit

76%

Draw or Kompozit

68%

Winning margin

Zenit Penza wins by 2+

14%

Kompozit wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Zenit Penza 1+ goals

74%

Zenit Penza 2+ goals

39%

Zenit Penza 3+ goals

15%

Kompozit 1+ goals

80%

Kompozit 2+ goals

48%

Kompozit 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Zenit Penza (draw refunded)

42%

Kompozit (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Penza at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 77 matches

Kompozit away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Penza attack 1.27 + Kompozit defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kompozit attack 1.83 + Zenit Penza defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zenit Penza scores more

32%

level

24%

Kompozit scores more

44%

Kompozit at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff