Kompozit 5–1 Zenit Penza: Result & Stats

Kompozit

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zenit Penza

9/29/2024

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kompozit55%

×Draw23%

Zenit Penza22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KompozitExpected goals in this matchZenit Penza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.09

Kompozit

1.85

Zenit Penza

1.09

Kompozit creates 70% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 76 away

2.05

creates per match

0.96

1.23

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Kompozit

2.05

Zenit Penza

0.96

allows per match

Kompozit

1.23

Zenit Penza

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kompozit+0.00on par

Zenit Penza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kompozit ↓

Zenit Penza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kompozit or draw

78%

Kompozit or Zenit Penza

77%

Draw or Zenit Penza

45%

Winning margin

Kompozit wins by 2+

31%

Zenit Penza wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kompozit 1+ goals

84%

Kompozit 2+ goals

55%

Kompozit 3+ goals

28%

Zenit Penza 1+ goals

66%

Zenit Penza 2+ goals

30%

Zenit Penza 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kompozit (draw refunded)

71%

Zenit Penza (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kompozit at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Zenit Penza away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.66 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kompozit attack 2.05 + Zenit Penza defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.85

Zenit Penza attack 0.96 + Kompozit defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kompozit scores more

55%

level

23%

Zenit Penza scores more

22%

Kompozit at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff