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Zenit Penza vs Fakel II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Zenit Penza
Zenit Penza
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fakel II
Fakel II
8/7/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Stadion Pervomayskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Zenit Penza57%
×Draw23%
Fakel II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Penza
1.82
Fakel II
0.98

Zenit Penza creates 86% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zenit Penza
1.27
Fakel II
0.53

allows per match

Zenit Penza
1.43
Fakel II
2.37

finishing

Zenit Penza+0.00on par
Fakel II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Penza ↓

Fakel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zenit Penza or draw
80%
Zenit Penza or Fakel II
77%
Draw or Fakel II
43%

Winning margin

Zenit Penza wins by 2+
33%
Fakel II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zenit Penza 1+ goals
84%
Zenit Penza 2+ goals
54%
Zenit Penza 3+ goals
27%
Fakel II 1+ goals
62%
Fakel II 2+ goals
26%
Fakel II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zenit Penza (draw refunded)
74%
Fakel II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Penza at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 77 matches

Fakel II away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Penza attack 1.27 + Fakel II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.82

Fakel II attack 0.53 + Zenit Penza defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zenit Penza scores more
57%
level
23%
Fakel II scores more
20%

Zenit Penza at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zenit Penza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit Penza vs Fakel II

Zenit Penza beat Fakel II 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pervomayskiy in Penza.