Fakel II 0–3 Zenit Penza: Result & Stats

Fakel II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Zenit Penza

10/14/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fakel II34%

×Draw26%

Zenit Penza40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fakel IIExpected goals in this matchZenit Penza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.40

Fakel II

1.28

Zenit Penza

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 76 away

0.90

creates per match

0.96

1.83

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Fakel II

0.90

Zenit Penza

0.96

allows per match

Fakel II

1.83

Zenit Penza

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel II+0.00on par

Zenit Penza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel II ↓

Zenit Penza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fakel II or draw

60%

Fakel II or Zenit Penza

74%

Draw or Zenit Penza

66%

Winning margin

Fakel II wins by 2+

15%

Zenit Penza wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Fakel II 1+ goals

72%

Fakel II 2+ goals

37%

Fakel II 3+ goals

14%

Zenit Penza 1+ goals

75%

Zenit Penza 2+ goals

41%

Zenit Penza 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Fakel II (draw refunded)

46%

Zenit Penza (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Zenit Penza away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.66 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel II attack 0.90 + Zenit Penza defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.28

Zenit Penza attack 0.96 + Fakel II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fakel II scores more

34%

level

26%

Zenit Penza scores more

40%

Zenit Penza at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zenit Penza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff