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Zenit Izhevsk vs Ural II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ural II
Ural II
5/7/2023Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 1Shkola Futbola Zenit Izhevsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Zenit Izhevsk37%
×Draw25%
Ural II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Izhevsk
1.38
Ural II
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 83 away

creates per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.26
Ural II
1.25

allows per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.57
Ural II
1.49

finishing

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par
Ural II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Izhevsk ↓

Ural II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zenit Izhevsk or draw
62%
Zenit Izhevsk or Ural II
75%
Draw or Ural II
63%

Winning margin

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
17%
Ural II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
75%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
40%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
16%
Ural II 1+ goals
76%
Ural II 2+ goals
41%
Ural II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
49%
Ural II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Izhevsk at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

Ural II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.26 + Ural II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ural II attack 1.25 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zenit Izhevsk scores more
37%
level
25%
Ural II scores more
38%

Ural II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ural II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit Izhevsk vs Ural II

Zenit Izhevsk beat Ural II 2-0 in Second League - Group 4 on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Shkola Futbola Zenit Izhevsk in Izhevsk.