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Ural II vs Zenit Izhevsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Ural II
Ural II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
4/30/2022Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Sport Baza Bazhoviya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ural II44%
×Draw25%
Zenit Izhevsk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural II
1.52
Zenit Izhevsk
1.22

Ural II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 41 away

creates per match

Ural II
1.36
Zenit Izhevsk
0.93

allows per match

Ural II
1.51
Zenit Izhevsk
1.68

finishing

Ural II+0.00on par
Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural II ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ural II or draw
69%
Ural II or Zenit Izhevsk
75%
Draw or Zenit Izhevsk
56%

Winning margin

Ural II wins by 2+
22%
Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ural II 1+ goals
78%
Ural II 2+ goals
45%
Ural II 3+ goals
20%
Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
70%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
34%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ural II (draw refunded)
59%
Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.51 · 84 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural II attack 1.36 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Ural II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ural II scores more
44%
level
25%
Zenit Izhevsk scores more
31%

Ural II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ural II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Ural II 2–0 Zenit Izhevsk

Ural II beat Zenit Izhevsk 2-0 in Second League - Group 4 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Sport Baza Bazhoviya in Sysert.