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Zenit Izhevsk vs Orenburg II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Orenburg II
Orenburg II
10/23/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion Central'nyj Zenit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Zenit Izhevsk46%
×Draw25%
Orenburg II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Izhevsk
1.56
Orenburg II
1.20

Zenit Izhevsk creates 30% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 83 away

creates per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.26
Orenburg II
0.83

allows per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.57
Orenburg II
1.87

finishing

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par
Orenburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Izhevsk ↓

Orenburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zenit Izhevsk or draw
71%
Zenit Izhevsk or Orenburg II
75%
Draw or Orenburg II
54%

Winning margin

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
23%
Orenburg II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
79%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
46%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
21%
Orenburg II 1+ goals
70%
Orenburg II 2+ goals
34%
Orenburg II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
61%
Orenburg II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Izhevsk at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

Orenburg II away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.87 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.26 + Orenburg II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.56

Orenburg II attack 0.83 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zenit Izhevsk scores more
46%
level
25%
Orenburg II scores more
29%

Zenit Izhevsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zenit Izhevsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Zenit Izhevsk 1–1 Orenburg II

Zenit Izhevsk and Orenburg II drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 4 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj Zenit in Izhevsk.