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Orenburg II vs Zenit Izhevsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Orenburg II
Orenburg II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
9/10/2022Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Orenburg II42%
×Draw25%
Zenit Izhevsk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg II
1.50
Zenit Izhevsk
1.30

Orenburg II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 41 away

creates per match

Orenburg II
1.33
Zenit Izhevsk
0.93

allows per match

Orenburg II
1.68
Zenit Izhevsk
1.68

finishing

Orenburg II+0.00on par
Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg II ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orenburg II or draw
67%
Orenburg II or Zenit Izhevsk
75%
Draw or Zenit Izhevsk
58%

Winning margin

Orenburg II wins by 2+
20%
Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Orenburg II 1+ goals
78%
Orenburg II 2+ goals
44%
Orenburg II 3+ goals
19%
Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
73%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
37%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Orenburg II (draw refunded)
56%
Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 84 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg II attack 1.33 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Orenburg II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orenburg II scores more
42%
level
25%
Zenit Izhevsk scores more
33%

Orenburg II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Orenburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Orenburg II 3–1 Zenit Izhevsk

Orenburg II beat Zenit Izhevsk 3-1 in Second League - Group 4 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.