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Zenit Izhevsk vs KAMAZ — Cup 2019

Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
10/5/2022CupCup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Kupol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zenit Izhevsk35%
×Draw24%
KAMAZ42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Izhevsk
1.50
KAMAZ
1.67

KAMAZ creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.50
KAMAZ
1.50

allows per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.83
KAMAZ
1.50

finishing

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Izhevsk ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zenit Izhevsk or draw
58%
Zenit Izhevsk or KAMAZ
76%
Draw or KAMAZ
65%

Winning margin

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
16%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
78%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
44%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
19%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
81%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
50%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
45%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Izhevsk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.50 + KAMAZ defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

KAMAZ attack 1.50 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zenit Izhevsk scores more
35%
level
24%
KAMAZ scores more
42%

KAMAZ at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Zenit Izhevsk 0–1 KAMAZ

KAMAZ beat Zenit Izhevsk 1-0 in Cup on October 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kupol in Izhevsk.