KAMAZ 3–1 Zenit Izhevsk: Result & Stats

KAMAZ

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zenit Izhevsk

11/5/2020

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KAMAZ73%

×Draw16%

Zenit Izhevsk10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAMAZExpected goals in this matchZenit Izhevsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

0.79

KAMAZ

2.44

Zenit Izhevsk

0.79

KAMAZ creates 209% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 41 away

3.21

creates per match

0.93

0.64

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

KAMAZ

3.21

Zenit Izhevsk

0.93

allows per match

KAMAZ

0.64

Zenit Izhevsk

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw

90%

KAMAZ or Zenit Izhevsk

84%

Draw or Zenit Izhevsk

27%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+

51%

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals

91%

KAMAZ 2+ goals

70%

KAMAZ 3+ goals

43%

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals

55%

Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals

19%

Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)

88%

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 3.21, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 3.21 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.44

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + KAMAZ defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

KAMAZ scores more

73%

level

16%

Zenit Izhevsk scores more

10%

KAMAZ at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff