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Zenit Irkutsk vs Smolensk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zenit Irkutsk
Zenit Irkutsk
CANC
12:00
Smolensk
Smolensk
5/11/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zenit Irkutsk62%
×Draw22%
Smolensk16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Irkutsk
1.82
Smolensk
0.79

Zenit Irkutsk creates 130% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zenit Irkutsk
1.71
Smolensk
0.73

allows per match

Zenit Irkutsk
0.86
Smolensk
1.93

finishing

Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par
Smolensk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Irkutsk ↓

Smolensk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zenit Irkutsk or draw
84%
Zenit Irkutsk or Smolensk
78%
Draw or Smolensk
38%

Winning margin

Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+
36%
Smolensk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals
84%
Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals
54%
Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals
27%
Smolensk 1+ goals
55%
Smolensk 2+ goals
19%
Smolensk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)
80%
Smolensk (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Irkutsk at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Smolensk away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Irkutsk attack 1.71 + Smolensk defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.82

Smolensk attack 0.73 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zenit Irkutsk scores more
62%
level
22%
Smolensk scores more
16%

Zenit Irkutsk at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zenit Irkutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zenit Irkutsk host Smolensk

May 11, 2021: Zenit Irkutsk take on Smolensk in Second League - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.