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Smolensk vs Zenit Irkutsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Smolensk
Smolensk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Zenit Irkutsk
Zenit Irkutsk
9/9/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion SGAFKST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Smolensk49%
×Draw28%
Zenit Irkutsk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smolensk
1.35
Zenit Irkutsk
0.84

Smolensk creates 61% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Smolensk
0.88
Zenit Irkutsk
0.50

allows per match

Smolensk
1.18
Zenit Irkutsk
1.83

finishing

Smolensk+0.00on par
Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smolensk ↓

Zenit Irkutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Smolensk or draw
77%
Smolensk or Zenit Irkutsk
72%
Draw or Zenit Irkutsk
51%

Winning margin

Smolensk wins by 2+
23%
Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Smolensk 1+ goals
74%
Smolensk 2+ goals
39%
Smolensk 3+ goals
15%
Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals
57%
Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals
21%
Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Smolensk (draw refunded)
68%
Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smolensk at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Zenit Irkutsk away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smolensk attack 0.88 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.35

Zenit Irkutsk attack 0.50 + Smolensk defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Smolensk scores more
49%
level
28%
Zenit Irkutsk scores more
23%

Smolensk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Smolensk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Smolensk 1–2 Zenit Irkutsk

Zenit Irkutsk beat Smolensk 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion SGAFKST in Smolensk.