Zenit Irkutsk 1–0 Dinamo Moskva II: Result & Stats

Zenit Irkutsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Moskva II

9/27/2020

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zenit Irkutsk43%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Moskva II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit IrkutskExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.16

Zenit Irkutsk

1.44

Dinamo Moskva II

1.16

Zenit Irkutsk creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 70 away

1.71

creates per match

1.46

0.86

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Zenit Irkutsk

1.71

Dinamo Moskva II

1.46

allows per match

Zenit Irkutsk

0.86

Dinamo Moskva II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Irkutsk ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zenit Irkutsk or draw

70%

Zenit Irkutsk or Dinamo Moskva II

74%

Draw or Dinamo Moskva II

57%

Winning margin

Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+

21%

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals

76%

Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals

42%

Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals

18%

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals

69%

Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals

32%

Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Irkutsk at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Irkutsk attack 1.71 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.46 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zenit Irkutsk scores more

43%

level

26%

Dinamo Moskva II scores more

30%

Zenit Irkutsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zenit Irkutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff