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Dinamo Moskva II vs Zenit Irkutsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
CANC
12:00
Zenit Irkutsk
Zenit Irkutsk
4/26/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dinamo Moskva II65%
×Draw20%
Zenit Irkutsk15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva II
2.09
Zenit Irkutsk
0.89

Dinamo Moskva II creates 135% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva II
2.35
Zenit Irkutsk
0.50

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva II
1.28
Zenit Irkutsk
1.83

finishing

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par
Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva II ↓

Zenit Irkutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva II or draw
85%
Dinamo Moskva II or Zenit Irkutsk
80%
Draw or Zenit Irkutsk
35%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
41%
Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
88%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
62%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
34%
Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals
59%
Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals
22%
Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
81%
Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Zenit Irkutsk away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva II attack 2.35 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.09

Zenit Irkutsk attack 0.50 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dinamo Moskva II scores more
65%
level
20%
Zenit Irkutsk scores more
15%

Dinamo Moskva II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Moskva II host Zenit Irkutsk

April 26, 2021: Dinamo Moskva II take on Zenit Irkutsk in Second League - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.