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Zenit Irkutsk vs Chita — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zenit Irkutsk
Zenit Irkutsk
FT
3 – 0
Chita
Chita
10/22/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion Zenit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zenit Irkutsk66%
×Draw20%
Chita14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Irkutsk
2.02
Chita
0.78

Zenit Irkutsk creates 159% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 27 away

creates per match

Zenit Irkutsk
1.71
Chita
0.70

allows per match

Zenit Irkutsk
0.86
Chita
2.33

finishing

Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par
Chita+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Irkutsk ↓

Chita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zenit Irkutsk or draw
86%
Zenit Irkutsk or Chita
80%
Draw or Chita
34%

Winning margin

Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+
41%
Chita wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals
87%
Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals
60%
Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals
33%
Chita 1+ goals
54%
Chita 2+ goals
18%
Chita 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)
83%
Chita (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Irkutsk at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Chita away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Irkutsk attack 1.71 + Chita defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.02

Chita attack 0.70 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zenit Irkutsk scores more
66%
level
20%
Chita scores more
14%

Zenit Irkutsk at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zenit Irkutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit Irkutsk vs Chita

Zenit Irkutsk beat Chita 3-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Zenit in Irkutsk.