Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chita vs Zenit Irkutsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chita
Chita
CANC
12:00
Zenit Irkutsk
Zenit Irkutsk
4/21/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Junost'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chita52%
×Draw26%
Zenit Irkutsk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chita
1.53
Zenit Irkutsk
0.91

Chita creates 68% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chita
1.23
Zenit Irkutsk
0.50

allows per match

Chita
1.31
Zenit Irkutsk
1.83

finishing

Chita+0.00on par
Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chita ↓

Zenit Irkutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chita or draw
78%
Chita or Zenit Irkutsk
74%
Draw or Zenit Irkutsk
48%

Winning margin

Chita wins by 2+
27%
Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chita 1+ goals
78%
Chita 2+ goals
45%
Chita 3+ goals
20%
Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals
60%
Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals
23%
Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chita (draw refunded)
70%
Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chita at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Zenit Irkutsk away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chita attack 1.23 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.53

Zenit Irkutsk attack 0.50 + Chita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chita scores more
52%
level
26%
Zenit Irkutsk scores more
22%

Chita at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chita face Zenit Irkutsk (Second League - Group 2)

Second League - Group 2 returns with Chita hosting Zenit Irkutsk. Match starts April 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chita host Zenit Irkutsk at Stadion Junost'.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.