Zenit 2 2–1 Yadro St. Petersburg: Result & Stats

Zenit 2

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Yadro St. Petersburg

K. Fateev 48'

I. Skrobotov 39'

Y. Shatalin 7'

8/10/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zenit 258%

×Draw22%

Yadro St. Petersburg20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit 2Expected goals in this matchYadro St. Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.04

Zenit 2

1.92

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.04

Zenit 2 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 15 away

2.10

creates per match

1.13

0.96

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Zenit 2

2.10

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.13

allows per match

Zenit 2

0.96

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Yadro St. Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw

80%

Zenit 2 or Yadro St. Petersburg

78%

Draw or Yadro St. Petersburg

42%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

34%

Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals

85%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

57%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

30%

Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals

65%

Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals

28%

Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

74%

Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Yadro St. Petersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 2.10 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.92

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.13 + Zenit 2 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zenit 2 scores more

58%

level

22%

Yadro St. Petersburg scores more

20%

Zenit 2 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Y. Shatalin

22'

I. Rodionov

31'

I. Vakhania← R. Khayloev

39'

I. Skrobotov

43'

I. Skrobotov

46'

K. Fateev← V. Saus

46'

A. Belokhonov← N. Tereshchuk

46'

D. Dyatlov← D. Smetskiy

46'

A. Pantyukhin← S. Matyash

48'

K. Fateev

64'

V. Y. Uldyakov

66'

K. Troyanov← R. Nogtev

68'

K. Troyanov

75'

N. Kamaev← L. Titov

78'

E. Kim← I. Rodionov

84'

D. Luchin← Y. Shatalin

87'

K. Troyanov

87'

K. Troyanov

87'

N. Balandin← M. Zhestarev

Zenit

Yadro

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Radimov

31'▲I. Vakhania←▼R. Khayloev

46'▲K. Fateev←▼V. Saus

46'▲A. Belokhonov←▼N. Tereshchuk

66'▲K. Troyanov←▼R. Nogtev

78'▲E. Kim←▼I. Rodionov

Zenit 2 substitutes

VakhaniaFateevBelokhonovTroyanovKim

Manager: O. Gorshkov

46'▲D. Dyatlov←▼D. Smetskiy

46'▲A. Pantyukhin←▼S. Matyash

75'▲N. Kamaev←▼L. Titov

84'▲D. Luchin←▼Y. Shatalin

87'▲N. Balandin←▼M. Zhestarev

Yadro St. Petersburg substitutes

DyatlovPantyukhinKamaevLuchinBalandin

Second League - Group 2: Zenit 2 2–1 Yadro St. Petersburg

Zenit 2 beat Yadro St. Petersburg 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on August 10, 2022.

Goals: Y. Shatalin (7'), I. Skrobotov (39'), K. Fateev (48').

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.

Zenit 2 vs Yadro St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Zenit 2 2–1 Yadro St. Petersburg