Yadro St. Petersburg 1–3 Zenit 2: Result & Stats

Yadro St. Petersburg

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Zenit 2

10/8/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yadro St. Petersburg30%

×Draw25%

Zenit 245%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yadro St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchZenit 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.61

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.27

Zenit 2

1.61

Zenit 2 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 80 away

1.20

creates per match

1.49

1.73

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.20

Zenit 2

1.49

allows per match

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.73

Zenit 2

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadro St. Petersburg ↓

Zenit 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Yadro St. Petersburg or draw

55%

Yadro St. Petersburg or Zenit 2

75%

Draw or Zenit 2

70%

Winning margin

Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+

13%

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals

72%

Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals

36%

Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals

14%

Zenit 2 1+ goals

80%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

48%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

40%

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadro St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.35 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.20 + Zenit 2 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Zenit 2 attack 1.49 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yadro St. Petersburg scores more

30%

level

25%

Zenit 2 scores more

45%

Zenit 2 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff