Zenit 2 0–1 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

Zenit 2

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

O. Nikolaev 88'

3/31/2018

First League · Round 30Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zenit 234%

×Draw29%

Rotor Volgograd37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit 2Expected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.17

Zenit 2

1.10

Rotor Volgograd

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 88 away

1.26

creates per match

1.05

1.29

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Zenit 2

1.26

Rotor Volgograd

1.05

allows per match

Zenit 2

1.29

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw

63%

Zenit 2 or Rotor Volgograd

71%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

66%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

14%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals

67%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

30%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

10%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

69%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

33%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

48%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.95 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 1.26 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.05 + Zenit 2 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zenit 2 scores more

34%

level

29%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

37%

Rotor Volgograd at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

I. Krutov← M. Sultonov

71'

I. Kamyshev← V. Soloveičiks

72'

O. Nikolaev← A. Rebko

80'

A. Elovskikh← V. Sirotov

80'

S. Kuznetsov← M. Votinov

88'

O. Nikolaev

Zenit

Rotor

12

80

57

23

8

▼

Rebko

47

Sysuev

22

▼

Sultonov

39

Burmistro

7

Romanenko

45

▼

31

41

58

56

59

79

88

37

▼

Sirotov

38

Musaev

81

▼

Soloveiči

33

Panyukov

64

Lesovoy

Manager: K. Zyryanov

71'▲I. Kamyshev←▼V. Soloveičiks

80'▲A. Elovskikh←▼V. Sirotov

Zenit 2 substitutes

97Kamyshev98Elovskikh32Prudnikov36Krapukhin39Zapriagayev73Plotnikov93Kizeev96Rukas

Manager: S. Pavlov

46'▲I. Krutov←▼M. Sultonov

72'▲O. Nikolaev←▼A. Rebko

80'▲S. Kuznetsov←▼M. Votinov

Rotor Volgograd substitutes

13Krutov18Nikolaev26Kuznetsov5Piskunov20Stolyarenko30Druzin77Kavlinov

First League: Zenit 2 0–1 Rotor Volgograd

Rotor Volgograd beat Zenit 2 1-0 in First League on March 31, 2018.

Goals: O. Nikolaev (88').

The match was played at Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg)).

Zenit 2 vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Zenit 2 0–1 Rotor Volgograd