Rotor Volgograd 4–1 Zenit 2: Result & Stats

Rotor Volgograd

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Zenit 2

M. Biryukov 55'

V. Borzykh 51'

M. Votinov 41', 31'

A. Panyukov 28'

9/6/2017

First League · Round 12Stadion Zenit (Volgograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rotor Volgograd46%

×Draw29%

Zenit 225%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotor VolgogradExpected goals in this matchZenit 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.88

Rotor Volgograd

1.29

Zenit 2

0.88

Rotor Volgograd creates 47% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

1.24

creates per match

0.76

0.99

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd

1.24

Zenit 2

0.76

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd

0.99

Zenit 2

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Zenit 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw

75%

Rotor Volgograd or Zenit 2

71%

Draw or Zenit 2

54%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

21%

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

72%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

37%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

14%

Zenit 2 1+ goals

59%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

22%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

64%

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.24 + Zenit 2 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Zenit 2 attack 0.76 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more

46%

level

29%

Zenit 2 scores more

25%

Rotor Volgograd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

31'

41'

51'

55'

59'

M. Sultonov← V. Romanenko

60'

D. Lesovoy← N. Prudnikov

62'

T. Rukas← S. Bugriev

64'

D. Pletnev← N. Andreev

68'

I. Krutov← V. Borzykh

74'

S. Krapukhin← A. Panyukov

76'

I. Ionov← A. Sidorichev

79'

R. Kontsedalov← M. Biryukov

Rotor

Zenit

71

Baburin

58

Zuev

56

Krugovoi

59

▼

Bugriev

37

Sirotov

97

Kamyshev

67

▼

Andreev

46

Gorulev

38

Musaev

33

⚽

▼

Panyukov

32

▼

16

88

20

67

5

33

17

▼

Sidoriche

21

⚽

▼

Borzykh

7

▼

Romanenko

45

⚽2

Votinov

9

⚽

▼

Biryukov

Manager: V. Esipov

59'▲M. Sultonov←▼V. Romanenko

68'▲I. Krutov←▼V. Borzykh

76'▲I. Ionov←▼A. Sidorichev

79'▲R. Kontsedalov←▼M. Biryukov

Rotor Volgograd substitutes

22Sultonov13Krutov2Ionov11Kontsedalov27Kuznetsov1Polyakov47Sysuev

Manager: A. Davydov

60'▲D. Lesovoy←▼N. Prudnikov

62'▲T. Rukas←▼S. Bugriev

64'▲D. Pletnev←▼N. Andreev

74'▲S. Krapukhin←▼A. Panyukov

Zenit 2 substitutes

64Lesovoy96Rukas49Pletnev36Krapukhin98Elovskikh78Nekrasov93Kizeev74Ivanov39Zapriagayev

First League: Rotor Volgograd 4–1 Zenit 2

Rotor Volgograd beat Zenit 2 4-1 in First League on September 6, 2017.

Goals: A. Panyukov (28'), M. Votinov (31', 41'), V. Borzykh (51'), M. Biryukov (55').

The match was played at Stadion Zenit (Volgograd).

Rotor Volgograd vs Zenit 2 — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Rotor Volgograd 4–1 Zenit 2