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Zenit 2 vs Krasava Odintsovo — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zenit 2
Zenit 2
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krasava Odintsovo
Krasava Odintsovo
10/14/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zenit 251%
×Draw23%
Krasava Odintsovo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit 2
1.80
Krasava Odintsovo
1.23

Zenit 2 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 16 away

creates per match

Zenit 2
2.10
Krasava Odintsovo
1.50

allows per match

Zenit 2
0.96
Krasava Odintsovo
1.50

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par
Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Krasava Odintsovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw
74%
Zenit 2 or Krasava Odintsovo
77%
Draw or Krasava Odintsovo
49%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+
28%
Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals
83%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
54%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
27%
Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals
71%
Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals
35%
Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
66%
Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Krasava Odintsovo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 2.10 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.50 + Zenit 2 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zenit 2 scores more
51%
level
23%
Krasava Odintsovo scores more
26%

Zenit 2 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Zenit 2 1–0 Krasava Odintsovo

Zenit 2 beat Krasava Odintsovo 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.