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Krasava Odintsovo vs Zenit 2 — Second League - Group 2 2020

Krasava Odintsovo
Krasava Odintsovo
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zenit 2
Zenit 2
8/21/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasava Odintsovo46%
×Draw25%
Zenit 230%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasava Odintsovo
1.61
Zenit 2
1.25

Krasava Odintsovo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 80 away

creates per match

Krasava Odintsovo
1.87
Zenit 2
1.49

allows per match

Krasava Odintsovo
1.00
Zenit 2
1.35

finishing

Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par
Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Odintsovo ↓

Zenit 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Krasava Odintsovo or draw
70%
Krasava Odintsovo or Zenit 2
75%
Draw or Zenit 2
54%

Winning margin

Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+
23%
Zenit 2 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals
80%
Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals
48%
Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals
22%
Zenit 2 1+ goals
71%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
36%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)
61%
Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Odintsovo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.35 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.87 + Zenit 2 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.61

Zenit 2 attack 1.49 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Krasava Odintsovo scores more
46%
level
25%
Zenit 2 scores more
30%

Krasava Odintsovo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Krasava Odintsovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Krasava Odintsovo 6–0 Zenit 2

Krasava Odintsovo beat Zenit 2 6-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.