Zenit 2 0–1 Baltika: Result & Stats | First League

Zenit 2

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Baltika

M. Tishkin 13'

9/23/2018

First League · Round 13Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zenit 232%

×Draw27%

Baltika41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit 2Expected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.34

Zenit 2

1.14

Baltika

1.34

Baltika creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 111 away

1.24

creates per match

1.32

1.36

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Zenit 2

1.24

Baltika

1.32

allows per match

Zenit 2

1.36

Baltika

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw

59%

Zenit 2 or Baltika

73%

Draw or Baltika

68%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

13%

Baltika wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals

68%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

32%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

11%

Baltika 1+ goals

74%

Baltika 2+ goals

39%

Baltika 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

43%

Baltika (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.03 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 1.24 + Baltika defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Baltika attack 1.32 + Zenit 2 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zenit 2 scores more

32%

level

27%

Baltika scores more

41%

Baltika at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Tishkin

36'

K. Makeev← V. Soloveičiks

63'

D. Kirillov← I. Vorobyov

73'

K. Pogrebnyak← V. Dyadyun

81'

D. Penchikov← A. Sinyak

84'

T. Rukas← S. Ivanov

85'

R. Magal← V. Kalenkovich

88'

P. Radunović← A. Kasaev

Zenit

Baltika

32

Pomazan

2

Sheshukov

25

Buyvolov

44

⚽

Tishkin

30

Takazov

93

▼

Kalenkovi

33

Pliev

11

▼

Kasaev

9

Grigorjev

34

Dmitriev

22

▼

93

3

88

59

80

72

▼

Sinyak

97

Kamyshev

74

▼

Ivanov

81

▼

Soloveiči

32

Prudnikov

84

▼

Vorobyov

Manager: V. Radimov

36'▲K. Makeev←▼V. Soloveičiks

63'▲D. Kirillov←▼I. Vorobyov

81'▲D. Penchikov←▼A. Sinyak

84'▲T. Rukas←▼S. Ivanov

Zenit 2 substitutes

76Makeev61Kirillov79Penchikov96Rukas31Ponomarenko54Kakkoev37Simutenkov

Manager: I. Ledyakhov

73'▲K. Pogrebnyak←▼V. Dyadyun

85'▲R. Magal←▼V. Kalenkovich

88'▲P. Radunović←▼A. Kasaev

Baltika substitutes

14Pogrebnyak28Magal7Radunović1Lantratov13Shabalin43Cherchesov98Volkov