Baltika 0–1 Zenit 2: Result & Stats | First League

Baltika

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zenit 2

A. Anyukov 84'

3/4/2018

First League · Round 26Stadion Baltika (Kaliningrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Baltika50%

×Draw29%

Zenit 221%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchZenit 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.74

Baltika

1.29

Zenit 2

0.74

Baltika creates 74% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 34 away

1.23

creates per match

0.76

0.73

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Baltika

1.23

Zenit 2

0.76

allows per match

Baltika

0.73

Zenit 2

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Zenit 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

79%

Baltika or Zenit 2

71%

Draw or Zenit 2

50%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

23%

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

72%

Baltika 2+ goals

37%

Baltika 3+ goals

14%

Zenit 2 1+ goals

52%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

17%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

70%

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.73 · 111 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.23 + Zenit 2 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Zenit 2 attack 0.76 + Baltika defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Baltika scores more

50%

level

29%

Zenit 2 scores more

21%

Baltika at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'

A. Elovskikh← D. Lesovoy

78'

A. Kobyalko← M. Grigorjev

81'

T. Rukas← D. Kirillov

84'

A. Anyukov

88'

D. Shevchuk← A. Dzhalilov

90+1'

D. Penchikov← V. Sirotov

90+5'

V. Soloveičiks← A. Panyukov

Baltika

Zenit

41

Kerzhakov

2

⚽

59

39

54

37

▼

Sirotov

97

Kamyshev

61

▼

Kirillov

55

Kaplenko

33

▼

Panyukov

64

▼

32

2

15

40

93

28

18

9

▼

Grigorjev

91

Svezhov

10

▼

Dzhalilov

7

Kasyan

Manager: I. Cherevchenko

78'▲A. Kobyalko←▼M. Grigorjev

88'▲D. Shevchuk←▼A. Dzhalilov

Baltika substitutes

22Kobyalko33Shevchuk1Lantratov8Maleev23Kryuchkov31Shakhov20Golyshev95Iago13Shabalin

Manager: K. Zyryanov

71'▲A. Elovskikh←▼D. Lesovoy

81'▲T. Rukas←▼D. Kirillov

90+1'▲D. Penchikov←▼V. Sirotov

90+5'▲V. Soloveičiks←▼A. Panyukov

Zenit 2 substitutes

98Elovskikh96Rukas79Penchikov81Soloveičiks32Prudnikov36Krapukhin38Musaev93Kizeev