Zemplín Michalovce 0–4 Podbrezová: Result & Stats

Zemplín Michalovce

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Podbrezová

R. Galcik 90', 38'

R. Siler 80'

K. Palumets 69'

12/6/2025

League #332 · Round 17Futbalový štadión MFK Zemplín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zemplín Michalovce14%

×Draw20%

Podbrezová66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zemplín MichalovceExpected goals in this matchPodbrezová

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

2.14

Zemplín Michalovce

0.88

Podbrezová

2.14

Podbrezová creates 143% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.88

2.40

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Zemplín Michalovce

1.00

Podbrezová

1.88

allows per match

Zemplín Michalovce

2.40

Podbrezová

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zemplín Michalovce+0.00on par

Podbrezová+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemplín Michalovce ↓

Podbrezová →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zemplín Michalovce or draw

34%

Zemplín Michalovce or Podbrezová

80%

Draw or Podbrezová

86%

Winning margin

Zemplín Michalovce wins by 2+

4%

Podbrezová wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Zemplín Michalovce 1+ goals

59%

Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals

22%

Zemplín Michalovce 3+ goals

6%

Podbrezová 1+ goals

88%

Podbrezová 2+ goals

63%

Podbrezová 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Zemplín Michalovce (draw refunded)

18%

Podbrezová (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemplín Michalovce at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Podbrezová away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemplín Michalovce attack 1.00 + Podbrezová defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Podbrezová attack 1.88 + Zemplín Michalovce defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zemplín Michalovce scores more

14%

level

20%

Podbrezová scores more

66%

Podbrezová at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Podbrezová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

F. Mielke

Podbrezová · D

8.2

Match Events

21'

Gytis Paulauskas

21'

Gytis PaulauskasCard upgrade

38'

R. Galcik

45+3'

Samuel Ramos

45+3'

Andrii Havrylenko

46'

J. Lopez← Y. Shimamura

46'

K. Taylor-Hart← K. Brosnan

46'

R. Sanusi← A. Gavrylenko

56'

Martin BednárGoal cancelled

57'

Jakub Luka

61'

Lukáš Pauschek

66'

R. Paraj← O. Deml

69'

K. Palumets↳ R. Sanusi

73'

K. Madu← F. Bahi

76'

M. Begala← A. Zubairu

78'

80'

81'

84'

84'

M. Dumbuya← K. Palumets

85'

L. Lemishko← H. Ahl

86'

M. Sallah← S. Stefanik

90'

R. Galcik↳ R. Sanusi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZemplínPodbrezová

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots7

0.39Expected Goals (xG)1.08

4Corners6

8Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots7

1On Target5

4Off Target0

4Blocked2

4Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

361Total Passes509

286Accurate Passes440

79%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides6