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Zemplín Michalovce vs Kisvarda FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zemplín Michalovce
Zemplín Michalovce
CANC
12:00
Kisvarda FC
Kisvarda FC
7/21/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Zemplín Michalovce63%
×Draw19%
Kisvarda FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zemplín Michalovce
2.39
Kisvarda FC
1.21

Zemplín Michalovce creates 98% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Zemplín Michalovce
3.20
Kisvarda FC
1.42

allows per match

Zemplín Michalovce
1.00
Kisvarda FC
1.58

finishing

Zemplín Michalovce+0.00on par
Kisvarda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemplín Michalovce ↓

Kisvarda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Zemplín Michalovce or draw
82%
Zemplín Michalovce or Kisvarda FC
81%
Draw or Kisvarda FC
37%

Winning margin

Zemplín Michalovce wins by 2+
41%
Kisvarda FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zemplín Michalovce 1+ goals
91%
Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals
69%
Zemplín Michalovce 3+ goals
42%
Kisvarda FC 1+ goals
70%
Kisvarda FC 2+ goals
34%
Kisvarda FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zemplín Michalovce (draw refunded)
78%
Kisvarda FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemplín Michalovce at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Kisvarda FC away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemplín Michalovce attack 3.20 + Kisvarda FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.39

Kisvarda FC attack 1.42 + Zemplín Michalovce defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Zemplín Michalovce scores more
63%
level
19%
Kisvarda FC scores more
18%

Zemplín Michalovce at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Zemplín Michalovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zemplín Michalovce face Kisvarda FC (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Zemplín Michalovce hosting Kisvarda FC. Match starts July 21, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.