Kisvarda FC 3–1 Zemplín Michalovce: Result & Stats

Kisvarda FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Zemplín Michalovce

1/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kisvarda FC61%

×Draw22%

Zemplín Michalovce16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kisvarda FCExpected goals in this matchZemplín Michalovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.83

Kisvarda FC

1.85

Zemplín Michalovce

0.83

Kisvarda FC creates 123% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 19 away

1.50

creates per match

1.16

0.50

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Kisvarda FC

1.50

Zemplín Michalovce

1.16

allows per match

Kisvarda FC

0.50

Zemplín Michalovce

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kisvarda FC+0.00on par

Zemplín Michalovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisvarda FC ↓

Zemplín Michalovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kisvarda FC or draw

84%

Kisvarda FC or Zemplín Michalovce

78%

Draw or Zemplín Michalovce

39%

Winning margin

Kisvarda FC wins by 2+

36%

Zemplín Michalovce wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kisvarda FC 1+ goals

84%

Kisvarda FC 2+ goals

55%

Kisvarda FC 3+ goals

28%

Zemplín Michalovce 1+ goals

56%

Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals

20%

Zemplín Michalovce 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kisvarda FC (draw refunded)

79%

Zemplín Michalovce (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisvarda FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Zemplín Michalovce away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisvarda FC attack 1.50 + Zemplín Michalovce defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.85

Zemplín Michalovce attack 1.16 + Kisvarda FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kisvarda FC scores more

61%

level

22%

Zemplín Michalovce scores more

16%

Kisvarda FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kisvarda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff