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Zemplín Michalovce vs Humenné — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Zemplín Michalovce
Zemplín Michalovce
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Humenné
Humenné
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Futbalový štadión MFK Zemplín - pitch 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zemplín Michalovce71%
×Draw14%
Humenné15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zemplín Michalovce
3.48
Humenné
1.63

Zemplín Michalovce creates 113% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Zemplín Michalovce
3.20
Humenné
2.25

allows per match

Zemplín Michalovce
1.00
Humenné
3.75

finishing

Zemplín Michalovce+0.00on par
Humenné+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemplín Michalovce ↓

Humenné →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Zemplín Michalovce or draw
85%
Zemplín Michalovce or Humenné
86%
Draw or Humenné
29%

Winning margin

Zemplín Michalovce wins by 2+
52%
Humenné wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zemplín Michalovce 1+ goals
97%
Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals
85%
Zemplín Michalovce 3+ goals
65%
Humenné 1+ goals
80%
Humenné 2+ goals
48%
Humenné 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Zemplín Michalovce (draw refunded)
82%
Humenné (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemplín Michalovce at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Humenné away — creates 2.25, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemplín Michalovce attack 3.20 + Humenné defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.48

Humenné attack 2.25 + Zemplín Michalovce defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Zemplín Michalovce scores more
71%
level
14%
Humenné scores more
15%

Zemplín Michalovce at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Zemplín Michalovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zemplín Michalovce vs Humenné

Zemplín Michalovce beat Humenné 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Zemplín - pitch 2 in Michalovce.