Humenné 2–0 Zemplín Michalovce: Result & Stats

Humenné

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zemplín Michalovce

6/24/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Chemlonský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Humenné55%

×Draw20%

Zemplín Michalovce24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HumennéExpected goals in this matchZemplín Michalovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.44

Humenné

2.24

Zemplín Michalovce

1.44

Humenné creates 56% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

2.27

creates per match

1.16

1.73

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Humenné

2.27

Zemplín Michalovce

1.16

allows per match

Humenné

1.73

Zemplín Michalovce

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humenné+0.00on par

Zemplín Michalovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humenné ↓

Zemplín Michalovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Humenné or draw

76%

Humenné or Zemplín Michalovce

80%

Draw or Zemplín Michalovce

45%

Winning margin

Humenné wins by 2+

34%

Zemplín Michalovce wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Humenné 1+ goals

89%

Humenné 2+ goals

65%

Humenné 3+ goals

38%

Zemplín Michalovce 1+ goals

76%

Zemplín Michalovce 2+ goals

42%

Zemplín Michalovce 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Humenné (draw refunded)

69%

Zemplín Michalovce (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humenné at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Zemplín Michalovce away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humenné attack 2.27 + Zemplín Michalovce defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.24

Zemplín Michalovce attack 1.16 + Humenné defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Humenné scores more

55%

level

20%

Zemplín Michalovce scores more

24%

Humenné at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff