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Zell am See vs Hallwang — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Zell am See
Zell am See
CANC
16:00
Hallwang
Hallwang
5/29/2020Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 25Alois Latini Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zell am See77%
×Draw15%
Hallwang9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zell am See
2.67
Hallwang
0.80

Zell am See creates 234% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 67 away

creates per match

Zell am See
2.71
Hallwang
1.18

allows per match

Zell am See
0.43
Hallwang
2.63

finishing

Zell am See+0.00on par
Hallwang+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zell am See ↓

Hallwang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Zell am See or draw
91%
Zell am See or Hallwang
85%
Draw or Hallwang
23%

Winning margin

Zell am See wins by 2+
55%
Hallwang wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zell am See 1+ goals
93%
Zell am See 2+ goals
74%
Zell am See 3+ goals
49%
Hallwang 1+ goals
55%
Hallwang 2+ goals
19%
Hallwang 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zell am See (draw refunded)
90%
Hallwang (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zell am See at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Hallwang away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.63 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zell am See attack 2.71 + Hallwang defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.67

Hallwang attack 1.18 + Zell am See defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Zell am See scores more
77%
level
15%
Hallwang scores more
9%

Zell am See at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Zell am See will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zell am See vs Hallwang — Match Preview

Zell am See face Hallwang on May 29, 2020 in this Landesliga - Salzburg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zell am See host Hallwang at Alois Latini Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.