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Hallwang vs Zell am See — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Hallwang
Hallwang
FT
1 – 4
Zell am See
Zell am See
10/19/2019Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 12Sportplatz Hallwang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hallwang30%
×Draw22%
Zell am See48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hallwang
1.55
Zell am See
2.01

Zell am See creates 30% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hallwang
1.72
Zell am See
1.63

allows per match

Hallwang
2.39
Zell am See
1.38

finishing

Hallwang+0.00on par
Zell am See+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hallwang ↓

Zell am See →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hallwang or draw
52%
Hallwang or Zell am See
78%
Draw or Zell am See
70%

Winning margin

Hallwang wins by 2+
14%
Zell am See wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Hallwang 1+ goals
79%
Hallwang 2+ goals
46%
Hallwang 3+ goals
20%
Zell am See 1+ goals
87%
Zell am See 2+ goals
59%
Zell am See 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Hallwang (draw refunded)
38%
Zell am See (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hallwang at home — creates 1.72, concedes 2.39 · 69 matches

Zell am See away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hallwang attack 1.72 + Zell am See defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.55

Zell am See attack 1.63 + Hallwang defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hallwang scores more
30%
level
22%
Zell am See scores more
48%

Zell am See at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zell am See will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Hallwang 1–4 Zell am See

Zell am See beat Hallwang 4-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Hallwang in Hallwang bei Salzburg.