Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–0 Tuzla City: Result & Stats

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tuzla City

5/3/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 30Stadion Grbavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo50%

×Draw26%

Tuzla City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoExpected goals in this matchTuzla City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.95

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.52

Tuzla City

0.95

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 78 away

1.45

creates per match

1.04

0.86

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.45

Tuzla City

1.04

allows per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

0.86

Tuzla City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ↓

Tuzla City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw

76%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Tuzla City

74%

Draw or Tuzla City

50%

Winning margin

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+

26%

Tuzla City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals

78%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals

45%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals

20%

Tuzla City 1+ goals

61%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

25%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)

68%

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 113 matches

Tuzla City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.45 + Tuzla City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tuzla City attack 1.04 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more

50%

level

26%

Tuzla City scores more

24%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff