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Tuzla City vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
12/2/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 16Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Tuzla City43%
×Draw26%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.43
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.16

Tuzla City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 110 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.57
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.12

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.20
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.29

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
69%
Tuzla City or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
74%
Draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
57%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
21%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
76%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
42%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
17%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals
69%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals
32%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
59%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.57 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.12 + Tuzla City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tuzla City scores more
43%
level
26%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more
31%

Tuzla City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Tuzla City 3–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Tuzla City beat Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3-0 in Premijer Liga on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.