Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1–2 Olimpik Sarajevo

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Olimpik Sarajevo

4/25/2021

Premijer Liga · Round 27Stadion Grbavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo64%

×Draw24%

Olimpik Sarajevo12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoExpected goals in this matchOlimpik Sarajevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.57

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.67

Olimpik Sarajevo

0.57

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo creates 193% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 17 away

1.45

creates per match

0.29

0.86

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.45

Olimpik Sarajevo

0.29

allows per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

0.86

Olimpik Sarajevo

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ↓

Olimpik Sarajevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw

88%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Olimpik Sarajevo

76%

Draw or Olimpik Sarajevo

36%

Winning margin

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+

36%

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals

81%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals

50%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals

23%

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals

43%

Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals

11%

Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)

84%

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 113 matches

Olimpik Sarajevo away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.45 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 0.29 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more

64%

level

24%

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more

12%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff