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Olimpik Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
10/17/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 11Stadion Otoka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olimpik Sarajevo34%
×Draw27%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.21
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.33

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

creates per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.13
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.12

allows per match

Olimpik Sarajevo
1.53
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.29

finishing

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpik Sarajevo ↓

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olimpik Sarajevo or draw
61%
Olimpik Sarajevo or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
73%
Draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
66%

Winning margin

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
14%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
70%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
34%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
12%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals
74%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals
38%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
46%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpik Sarajevo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.13 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.12 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
34%
level
27%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more
39%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Olimpik Sarajevo 0–3 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo beat Olimpik Sarajevo 3-0 in Premijer Liga on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Otoka in Sarajevo.