Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0–1 Krupa na Vrbasu

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Krupa na Vrbasu

9/19/2020

Premijer Liga · Round 8Stadion Grbavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo59%

×Draw25%

Krupa na Vrbasu16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoExpected goals in this matchKrupa na Vrbasu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.67

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.55

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.67

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo creates 131% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 17 away

1.45

creates per match

0.47

0.86

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.45

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.47

allows per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

0.86

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw

84%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Krupa na Vrbasu

75%

Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu

41%

Winning margin

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+

31%

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals

79%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals

46%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals

20%

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

49%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

15%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)

79%

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 113 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.45 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.55

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 0.47 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more

59%

level

25%

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

16%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff