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Krupa na Vrbasu vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
12/12/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 19Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu38%
×Draw28%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krupa na Vrbasu
1.21
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
1.13
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.12

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
1.13
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.29

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw
66%
Krupa na Vrbasu or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
72%
Draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
62%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
16%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
70%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
34%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
12%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals
68%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals
31%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
53%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.13 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.12 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
38%
level
28%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more
34%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krupa na Vrbasu vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Krupa na Vrbasu beat Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2-1 in Premijer Liga on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu in Krupa na Vrbasu.