Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3–1 Igman Konjic

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Igman Konjic

M. Cvetanoski 59'

Abdulmalik Al Jaber 28'

S. Krpić 23'

M. Ramić 72'

8/17/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 3Stadion Grbavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo57%

×Draw23%

Igman Konjic21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoExpected goals in this matchIgman Konjic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.04

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.87

Igman Konjic

1.04

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo creates 80% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 51 away

1.43

creates per match

1.20

0.88

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.43

Igman Konjic

1.20

allows per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

0.88

Igman Konjic

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ↓

Igman Konjic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw

79%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Igman Konjic

77%

Draw or Igman Konjic

43%

Winning margin

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+

33%

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals

85%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals

56%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals

29%

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

65%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

28%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)

73%

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.88 · 116 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.43 + Igman Konjic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.87

Igman Konjic attack 1.20 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more

57%

level

23%

Igman Konjic scores more

21%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. Galic

11'

E. Buturovic

23'

S. Krpić

28'

Abdulmalik Al Jaber

29'

L. Posinković← A. Bekić

33'

L. Posinkovic

35'

A. Al Jaber

36'

D. Sabic

46'

S. Božić← J. Nikolić

49'

S. Bozic

59'

M. Cvetanoski

69'

E. Odinaka← M. Cvetanoski

69'

B. Vukoja← A. Hiroš

69'

F. Dangubić← S. Krpić

72'

M. Ramić

78'

I. Đorić← Abdulmalik Al Jaber

78'

B. Nurković← A. Bešagić

82'

B. Mešinović← M. Ramić

82'

T. Mrakovic← E. Herić

87'

M. Mirchevski← A. Boljević

Zeljeznicar

Igman

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Jaber

⚽

▼

Krpić

⚽

▼

Cvetanosk

Manager: D. Ćorić

69'▲E. Odinaka←▼M. Cvetanoski

69'▲B. Vukoja←▼A. Hiroš

69'▲F. Dangubić←▼S. Krpić

78'▲I. Đorić←▼Abdulmalik Al Jaber

87'▲M. Mirchevski←▼A. Boljević

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo substitutes

OdinakaVukojaDangubićĐorićMirchevski

Manager: H. Musemić

29'▲L. Posinković←▼A. Bekić

46'▲S. Božić←▼J. Nikolić

78'▲B. Nurković←▼A. Bešagić

82'▲B. Mešinović←▼M. Ramić

82'▲T. Mrakovic←▼E. Herić

Igman Konjic substitutes

PosinkovićBožićNurkovićMešinovićMrakovic