Igman Konjic 0–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Igman Konjic

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

D. Šabić 89'

4/5/2025

Premijer Liga · Round 24Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Igman Konjic35%

×Draw28%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Igman KonjicExpected goals in this matchZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.22

Igman Konjic

1.17

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 111 away

1.06

creates per match

1.13

1.31

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Igman Konjic

1.06

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.13

allows per match

Igman Konjic

1.31

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw

63%

Igman Konjic or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

72%

Draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

65%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

14%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

69%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

33%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

11%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals

70%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals

34%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

48%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.27 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.06 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.13 + Igman Konjic defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Igman Konjic scores more

35%

level

28%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more

37%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Mešić← M. Aćimović

41'

B. Nurkovic

46'

S. Krpić← O. Laušević

46'

D. Šabić← E. Odinaka

46'

S. Radovac← H. Karjašević

51'

A. Bešagić← D. Sadiković

56'

A. Fočo← M. Cvetanoski

74'

A. Hrustanović← A. Mešić

74'

T. Burey← J. Mulato

82'

S. KrpicMissed penalty

86'

M. Mirchevski← F. Dangubić

89'

D. Šabić

90+4'

M. Galic

90+5'

S. Krpic

Igman

Zeljeznicar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Z. Milošević

10'▲A. Mešić←▼M. Aćimović

51'▲A. Bešagić←▼D. Sadiković

74'▲A. Hrustanović←▼A. Mešić

74'▲T. Burey←▼J. Mulato

Igman Konjic substitutes

MešićBešagićHrustanovićBurey

Manager: D. Ćorić

46'▲S. Krpić←▼O. Laušević

46'▲D. Šabić←▼E. Odinaka

46'▲S. Radovac←▼H. Karjašević

56'▲A. Fočo←▼M. Cvetanoski

86'▲M. Mirchevski←▼F. Dangubić

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo substitutes

KrpićŠabićRadovacFočoMirchevski

Premijer Liga: Igman Konjic 0–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo beat Igman Konjic 1-0 in Premijer Liga on April 5, 2025.

Goals: D. Šabić (89').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.

Igman Konjic vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — Premijer Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premijer Liga: Igman Konjic 0–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo