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Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs GOŠK Gabela — Premijer Liga 2019

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
12/9/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 17Stadion Grbavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo57%
×Draw23%
GOŠK Gabela20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.83
GOŠK Gabela
1.00

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo creates 83% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 34 away

creates per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.45
GOŠK Gabela
1.15

allows per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.86
GOŠK Gabela
2.21

finishing

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par
GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ↓

GOŠK Gabela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw
80%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or GOŠK Gabela
77%
Draw or GOŠK Gabela
43%

Winning margin

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+
32%
GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals
84%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals
54%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals
28%
GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
63%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
26%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)
74%
GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 113 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.45 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.83

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.15 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more
57%
level
23%
GOŠK Gabela scores more
20%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 4–1 GOŠK Gabela

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo beat GOŠK Gabela 4-1 in Premijer Liga on December 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Grbavica in Sarajevo.