GOŠK Gabela 1–2 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

GOŠK Gabela

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

4/27/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 29Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

GOŠK Gabela26%

×Draw25%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOŠK GabelaExpected goals in this matchZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.57

GOŠK Gabela

1.06

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.57

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

0.84

creates per match

1.12

2.03

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela

0.84

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.12

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela

2.03

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw

51%

GOŠK Gabela or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

75%

Draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

74%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+

10%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals

65%

GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals

29%

GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals

9%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals

79%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals

46%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)

34%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 0.84, concedes 2.03 · 32 matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 0.84 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.12 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more

26%

level

25%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more

49%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff