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Željezničar Banja Luka vs Velež Nevesinje — 1st League - RS 2019

Željezničar Banja Luka
Željezničar Banja Luka
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Velež Nevesinje
Velež Nevesinje
11/4/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 14Stadion FK Željezničar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Željezničar Banja Luka65%
×Draw19%
Velež Nevesinje16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Željezničar Banja Luka
2.19
Velež Nevesinje
0.97

Željezničar Banja Luka creates 126% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 50 away

creates per match

Željezničar Banja Luka
1.88
Velež Nevesinje
0.94

allows per match

Željezničar Banja Luka
1.01
Velež Nevesinje
2.50

finishing

Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par
Velež Nevesinje+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Željezničar Banja Luka ↓

Velež Nevesinje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Željezničar Banja Luka or draw
84%
Željezničar Banja Luka or Velež Nevesinje
81%
Draw or Velež Nevesinje
35%

Winning margin

Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+
41%
Velež Nevesinje wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals
89%
Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals
64%
Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals
37%
Velež Nevesinje 1+ goals
62%
Velež Nevesinje 2+ goals
25%
Velež Nevesinje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)
81%
Velež Nevesinje (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Željezničar Banja Luka at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Velež Nevesinje away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 1.88 + Velež Nevesinje defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.19

Velež Nevesinje attack 0.94 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Željezničar Banja Luka scores more
65%
level
19%
Velež Nevesinje scores more
16%

Željezničar Banja Luka at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Željezničar Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Željezničar Banja Luka vs Velež Nevesinje

Željezničar Banja Luka beat Velež Nevesinje 2-0 in 1st League - RS on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Željezničar in Banja Luka.