Velež Nevesinje 4–0 Željezničar Banja Luka

Velež Nevesinje

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Željezničar Banja Luka

5/15/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 31Gradski stadion Nevesinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Velež Nevesinje56%

×Draw23%

Željezničar Banja Luka21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velež NevesinjeExpected goals in this matchŽeljezničar Banja Luka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.98

Velež Nevesinje

1.79

Željezničar Banja Luka

0.98

Velež Nevesinje creates 83% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 87 away

1.76

creates per match

0.82

1.14

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Velež Nevesinje

1.76

Željezničar Banja Luka

0.82

allows per match

Velež Nevesinje

1.14

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velež Nevesinje+0.00on par

Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velež Nevesinje ↓

Željezničar Banja Luka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Velež Nevesinje or draw

79%

Velež Nevesinje or Željezničar Banja Luka

77%

Draw or Željezničar Banja Luka

44%

Winning margin

Velež Nevesinje wins by 2+

32%

Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Velež Nevesinje 1+ goals

83%

Velež Nevesinje 2+ goals

53%

Velež Nevesinje 3+ goals

26%

Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals

62%

Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals

26%

Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Velež Nevesinje (draw refunded)

73%

Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velež Nevesinje at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Željezničar Banja Luka away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velež Nevesinje attack 1.76 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 0.82 + Velež Nevesinje defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Velež Nevesinje scores more

56%

level

23%

Željezničar Banja Luka scores more

21%

Velež Nevesinje at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Velež Nevesinje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff