Željezničar Banja Luka 1–1 Rudar Prijedor

Željezničar Banja Luka

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rudar Prijedor

11/18/2023

1st League - RS · RS - 16Stadion FK Željezničar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Željezničar Banja Luka44%

×Draw28%

Rudar Prijedor28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Željezničar Banja LukaExpected goals in this matchRudar Prijedor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.02

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.34

Rudar Prijedor

1.02

Željezničar Banja Luka creates 31% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 73 away

1.88

creates per match

1.03

1.01

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.88

Rudar Prijedor

1.03

allows per match

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.01

Rudar Prijedor

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Željezničar Banja Luka ↓

Rudar Prijedor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Željezničar Banja Luka or draw

72%

Željezničar Banja Luka or Rudar Prijedor

72%

Draw or Rudar Prijedor

56%

Winning margin

Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+

20%

Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals

74%

Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals

39%

Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals

15%

Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals

64%

Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals

27%

Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)

61%

Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Željezničar Banja Luka at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Rudar Prijedor away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.81 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 1.88 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rudar Prijedor attack 1.03 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Željezničar Banja Luka scores more

44%

level

28%

Rudar Prijedor scores more

28%

Željezničar Banja Luka at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Željezničar Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff