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Rudar Prijedor vs Željezničar Banja Luka — 1st League - RS 2019

Rudar Prijedor
Rudar Prijedor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Željezničar Banja Luka
Željezničar Banja Luka
10/26/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Rudar Prijedor66%
×Draw21%
Željezničar Banja Luka13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Prijedor
1.97
Željezničar Banja Luka
0.74

Rudar Prijedor creates 166% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 87 away

creates per match

Rudar Prijedor
2.10
Željezničar Banja Luka
0.82

allows per match

Rudar Prijedor
0.67
Željezničar Banja Luka
1.83

finishing

Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par
Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Prijedor ↓

Željezničar Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rudar Prijedor or draw
87%
Rudar Prijedor or Željezničar Banja Luka
79%
Draw or Željezničar Banja Luka
34%

Winning margin

Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+
41%
Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals
86%
Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals
58%
Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals
31%
Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals
52%
Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals
17%
Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)
83%
Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Prijedor at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.67 · 73 matches

Željezničar Banja Luka away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Prijedor attack 2.10 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.97

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 0.82 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rudar Prijedor scores more
66%
level
21%
Željezničar Banja Luka scores more
13%

Rudar Prijedor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rudar Prijedor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Rudar Prijedor 3–0 Željezničar Banja Luka

Rudar Prijedor beat Željezničar Banja Luka 3-0 in 1st League - RS on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Prijedor.