Željezničar Banja Luka 6–2 Podrinje Janja

Željezničar Banja Luka

FT

6 – 2

Podrinje Janja

5/15/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 28Stadion FK Željezničar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Željezničar Banja Luka66%

×Draw20%

Podrinje Janja15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Željezničar Banja LukaExpected goals in this matchPodrinje Janja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.91

Željezničar Banja Luka

2.15

Podrinje Janja

0.91

Željezničar Banja Luka creates 136% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 54 away

1.88

creates per match

0.80

1.01

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.88

Podrinje Janja

0.80

allows per match

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.01

Podrinje Janja

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Željezničar Banja Luka ↓

Podrinje Janja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Željezničar Banja Luka or draw

85%

Željezničar Banja Luka or Podrinje Janja

80%

Draw or Podrinje Janja

34%

Winning margin

Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+

42%

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals

88%

Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals

63%

Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals

36%

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals

60%

Podrinje Janja 2+ goals

23%

Podrinje Janja 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)

81%

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Željezničar Banja Luka at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Podrinje Janja away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 1.88 + Podrinje Janja defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.15

Podrinje Janja attack 0.80 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Željezničar Banja Luka scores more

66%

level

20%

Podrinje Janja scores more

15%

Željezničar Banja Luka at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Željezničar Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff